Predictions For NFL Week 4 2013

It's hard to believe we are already on week 4 of the season.
I am looking to rebound from last weeks 8-8 results.
Here are my picks :)

SF – Stl                                   SF

Bal – Buf                                Bal

Cin – Cle                                 Cin

Chi – Det                                Chi

Sea – Hou                               Hou

Ind – Jac                                  Ind

NYG – KC                              KC

Pit – Min                                 Min

Ari – TB                                  Ari

NYJ – Ten                               Ten

Phi – Den                                Den

Was – Oak                              Was

Dal – SD                                 SD

NE – Atl                                  Atl

Mia – NO                                NO

Byes this week:

Car, GB

Seattle at Houston - I am going against the grain in picking Houston. I know Seattle has looked very impressive the last couple of weeks and the Texans didn't show up last week against Baltimore. However, they are a good football team and I expect them to bounce back with a strong performance at home.

NYJ at Tennessee - They are both playing better than expected so far this year. I still don't think either team is a strong contender for the playoffs. This one comes down to home field advantage.

Dallas at San Diego - Inconsistent Dallas looked very good against a very bad looking Rams team last week. It's time for them to put up a bad game themselves. San Diego still needs to get a win and this is their week.

Results From NFL Week 3 2013

This week is what I love about the NFL and doing these picks.
It's also what gives me so much frustration lol.

I went 8-8 for the week.
A lousy 50% which brought my overall season winning percentage down to 68.75%

Through 3 weeks, the home team is winning 66.67% of the time. So you could just pick the home team every game and do just about as well.

Or could you?

Let's take a look at the 2 previous years and compare:

After 3 weeks in 2012 the home team had only won 50% of the time. By the end of the 2012 season, the home team had won 57.03%  - 146 out of 256 games.

After 3 weeks in 2011 the home team had won 64.583% of the time. By the end of the 2011 season, the home team had only won 56.64% - 145 out of 256 games.

It seems like it should be easy enough to pick the winner at least 2/3 of the time. But it's not that easy.

A few surprises this week:
Houston only scoring 9 points and Baltimore scoring 30.
Carolina shutting out NYG while putting up an amazing 38.
Cleveland scoring 31 points after all the distractions last week.
NYJ scoring 27 points.
Indianapolis 27 - SF 7.

Tomorrow I will make my predictions for week 4

Predictions For NFL Week 3 2013

KC – Phi                     Phi

Hou – Bal                    Hou

NYG – Car                  NYG

GB – Cin                     GB

Stl – Dal                      Dal

Cle – Min                    Min

TB – NE                      NE

Ari – NO                     NO

SD – Ten                     Ten

Det – Was                   Det

Atl – Mia                    Atl

Buf – NYJ                   Buf

Jac – Sea                     Sea

Ind – SF                      SF

Chi – Pit                      Chi

Oak – Den                   Den

Kansas City at Philadelphia - Should be an entertaining game. I am going with the Eagles at home in a close but high scoring game.

St. Louis at Dallas - Both teams are inconsistent and mistake prone. The young Rams make more mistakes and won't be able to overcome them on the road.

Cleveland at Minnesota - Browns are rebuilding again. I thought they were heading in a positive direction and had somethings to build on. I guess Mike Lombardi and Rob Chudzinski think otherwise. Minnesota in a very low scoring, very long & boring game.

San Diego at Tennessee - This is a much better game than I anticipated it would be at the beginning of the season. Both have unexpected wins this year. Both have played better in their losses than I thought too. I just can't get away from how difficult it is to travel east and win on the road. Tennessee at home.

Results From NFL Week 2 2013

I went 13-3 this week

I am very happy with the result.

If it wasn't for EJ Manuel's 9 play drive culminating in a last second touchdown pass to pull out an amazing win over the Carolina Panther's, I would have been an outstanding 14-2.

I will take the 81.125% lol

I have to give credit to San Diego traveling all the way across the continent and upsetting Philadelphia.

Congratulations to Arizona for winning at home against Detroit. Arizona will have a much better record this year. To say they are a better "team" this year is not fair to last year's team, including Ken Whisenhunt and the rest of the coaching staff.

They had some major injuries that seriously hurt their ability to win. Plus they did not have a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. Now THAT, may be on the coaching staff. I don't know. I'm not an "insider" enough to know where the responsibility lies and I haven't taken the time to search it out for myself.

The bottom line is the Cardinals will win more games this year than they did last year.

According to the posted picks I am 23-9 for the year or 71.87%

I will post week 3 on Thursday.

Predictions for NFL Week 2 2013

9/12/13

Here we go with week 2 picks.

NYJ - NE      NE
Stl - Atl          Atl
Cle - Bal        Bal
Car - Buf       Car
Min - Chi       Chi
Was - GB      GB
Ten - Hou      Hou
Mia - Ind       Mia
Dal - KC       KC
SD - Phi        Phi
Det - Ari        Det
NO - TB        NO
Den - NYG     Den
Jac - Oak       Oak
SF - Sea        Sea
Pit - Cin         Cin

There are a couple of tough picks this week.

Carolina at Buffalo - Neither team is all that good but both are capable of winning. Normally I would default to the home team but I am going with the experience of Cam over the rookie EJ.

Miami at Indianapolis - Miami is on the rise and many people are picking Ind to make it to the playoffs. I am not though. I think Indy has a slight drop off and this is an example where I think they don't win a game a playoff team should win at home. Miami will be just enough better on both sides of the ball to squeak out a win on the road.

Dallas at KC - Dallas has the talent to win and be a playoff caliber team. But they seem to end up losing games they shouldn't. With all the turnovers the Cowboys got last week there is no way the Giants should have been in the game. Alex Smith won't turn the ball over and will have success moving up and down the field but still have trouble scoring against the new Kiffin led Dallas defense. However, the inconsistent Dallas offense won't score enough points without the short field and turnovers to win this game in a very difficult Arrowhead stadium.

Denver at NYG - It is always tough for teams near the west coast to go east and play well enough to win. I know Denver isn't exactly west coast but it's still a long trip east. The Giants will play better than they did last week. I guarantee they won't have as many turnovers. However, Peyton is still the sheriff running the high octane, high powered Bronco offense and this is their year.

Jacksonville at Oakland - Who really cares outside of their organizations and a few die hard fans. Oakland at home.

SF at Seattle - Looks like it will be a great game. Seattle defense will be much tougher on SF and
Kaepernick than GB last week. Seattle at home in a close, low scoring game.

It's Been 12 Years

Take time today to evaluate who you are and where you are

If you were to die today, what would your family, friends, acquaintances, & coworkers say about you?
No, I mean when they are being really honest and blunt - not being politically correct; what would they be thinking about you?

Is that how you want to be remembered?
Have you made the opportunities to create positive memories with the most important people in your life?
Are you adding value to those around you or do you drain them emotionally?

Thinking back to the events of 12 years ago did you set any goals or vow to make changes in your life? Are you where you thought you would be (or where you wanted to be)?
If not, are you at least headed in that direction or did you fall back into the same old routines as before?

Time keeps moving. Each day is a precious gift. Be intentional with it. Make a decision to move toward the goal(s) you have established; to be the person you want to be; to create the cherished memories.

If you do not, another day will pass; then another; and another; then another week; and another week; and then a month; 2 months; 4 months; a year ... IF you are still alive in a year or 12 years, will you be any different? Will those around you think anything different about you? Will you be able to say you made a difference in someones life?

More importantly than what you think, or those around you think, is what will God think?

Today is a day of evaluation. What are your life goals? What are you doing with your life and are you cooperating with God in the process?

Whatever you are going through today, may you have peace and joy today in the midst of life's chaos.

Results from NFL Week 1 2013

9/10/13

I just reviewed the picks I made on 9/5/13 and was surprised by what I put there because there are a couple that don't match what I have on my paper. rrrrrrr :(

Some how I put in the blog that I chose Jac over KC and SD over Hou.

so according to what was actually published I end up with a 10-6 record instead of the 12-4 record I have in my notebook.

12-4 for Week 1 is really good.
My goal is 12-4 (75%) on weeks without any byes.

10-6 isn't bad for Week 1 though.

I will have to pay closer attention to what I put in the blog before I publish it - call it a rookie blogging mistake. Not acceptable but I can't go back and fix it now.

On my notebook picks (what I intended) I could easily have been 13-3 - I mean who outside of a very very few NY Jets fans would have picked the Jets to win? But that is why they play the games; right?

I have a few days to think about my Week 2 picks.

Until then ... :)

Week 1 2013 NFL Season

Today is 9/5/13 and the NFL officially kicks off the season with the first regular season game tonight.

The format is I will put the visiting team on the left and the home team on the right and then I will list the team I think will win.

1. Bal - Den      Den
2. NE - Buf       NE
3. Sea - Car      Sea
4. Cin - Chi       Cin
5. Mia - Cle       Cle
6. Min - Det       Det
7. Oak - Ind       Ind
8. KC - Jac        Jac
9. Atl - NO        NO
10. TB - NYJ      TB
11. Ten - Pit         Pit
12. GB - SF         SF
13. Ari - Stl          Stl
14. NYG - Dal     Dal
15. Phi - Was       Phi
16. Hou - SD       SD

NFL 2013 Season Predictions

A friend of mine has been picking all the NFL games played each week for many years. In 2005 he asked if I would like to pick the games with him and see how we do. Seemed like a fun idea at the time.

We have been doing that each season ever since.

My friend kept the records for most of those years.

My results for the 2005-2012 seasons for all games including playoffs, Super Bowl, & Pro Bowl are:

1432-710-2

That is a 66.79% winning percentage in 2,144 games

I wouldn't call it great but it's not for a regular guy with basic information. I am not a gambler, so these picks are what is called "straight up" - not using any kind of point spread.

I historically do better in the regular season and struggle once the playoffs begin. I know, I can't seem to win the big one lol

Here are the regular season results for 2011:

174-82 - 67.96%

My results for the regular season in 2012 were not quite as good:

164-91-1 - 64.06%

There have been times my friend would do some "research" to compare our results against the experts. It surprised me quite a bit the first few times he did that because we compared very favorably. Few of the "experts" did better than we did and most did worse.

So I get a little skeptical when the so called "analysts" provide "insights" into how well a team is going to play or not play and who should win.

I'm not going to mention any names but there is an analyst for ESPN and NFL Network that was a former player and GM. His Wikipedia entry states:

His eight-year tenure as head of the franchise led to the worst eight-year record in the history of the modern NFL (31-84, a .270 winning percentage)

Another analyst for NFL Insiders on ESPN was a former GM. Over a 4 year draft time frame, only 8 players (out of 34 picks) are on the team and most are not even in the NFL at this time. That is a 23.52%.  My numbers could be slightly off since I didn't take time to review every team roster but I think there are about 5 other players on other teams. That brings it to 35%.

My point is, for a multi-billion dollar industry, I think I can do about as well.

Therefore, I am going to make my predictions and picks more public using this blog; so here goes

Division Winners:

AFC East - New England

AFC North - Cincinnati

AFC South - Houston

AFC West - Denver

NFC East - Dallas

NFC North - Green Bay

NFC South - Atlanta

NFC West - Seattle

Wild Cards:

AFC - Pittsburgh & Kansas City

NFC - New Orleans & Detroit

Conference Championship Game:

AFC

Houston over Denver

NFC

Atlanta over Seattle

Super Bowl:

Denver over Atlanta

I really don't want to pick Seattle to be in the championship game. I want to have it as Atlanta over New Orleans. But with the seeding issues, I think they will play the week before.

You are welcome to join in or comment.

Up next is the actual Week 1 picks.